It’s a new month- and that means it’s time to take a look back at last month and identify some trends we are seeing in the Real Estate market. With interest rates rising last month (then abruptly dropping .60 points), this report shouldn’t be surprising- it shows slight downturn. But the drop in rates is encouraging and suggests that I might have better graphs to show soon!
Median Sales Price
I use the median closed price for homes to show the growth in value that properties in our areas have experienced. Medians work best because they are not skewed by anomalies like averages are, and I used closed price rather than list price to provide exact values, not what sellers might hope it is worth.
Real Estate is an appreciating asset so it is not surprising to see the values rise overtime, but these recent years of high demand have also helped that. In November, our median sales price was $250,000. That’s down $11,000 from last month, but up $20,000 from a year ago!
Closed Price to Original Price ratio
This graph is a great indicator of demand in our market. It shows us what percentage of the original asking price (before any reductions) houses are selling for. If a house sells for the exact asking price, it will have a ratio of 100.0%.
Last month, we had a 97% ratio, which sounds pretty good, but was actually the lowest it has been since January 2020. With higher interest rates and therefor less demand on the buyers side, it’s important for sellers to have realistic expectations when selecting a price for their home.
Median Days to Sell
Days to sell really means days to go under contract, aka days until the seller has accepted a written offer to purchase for the property. Like the last graph, this helps us measure supply vs demand. I am again using median rather than average so that the outliers don’t skew our numbers.
In the past, 30+ days on market was perfectly normal. Since demand picked up several years ago, we have been spoiled with record fast sales. They have slowed down ever so slightly, but houses are still flying off the market. In November, the median days to sell was 11, which is down 2 from last month, but up 2 from last year.
Number of New Listings
This graph represents the number of properties listed for sale over the past 3 years. This statistic helps us identify what supply levels are, since supply levels directly affect demand and prices.
As you can see from the patterns in the graph, it is not uncommon for people to hold off on selling this time of the year. In November this year, we only had 333 new listings, which is even less than last year when we had 377 new listings. Many people who own are enjoying large cushions of equity and low interest rates. Those things combined with some economic uncertainty might explain why we’ve got less people wanting to sell this year. This month, in December, we are likely going to have even less than we did last month, considering the Holidays and everything else associated with this time of year.
Number of Sales
Here we see a visualization of the number of homes that made it through the listing process and ended up being sold to an eager buyer. Just like the last graph, we can see some obvious season trends here. Regardless, last month we sold 282 properties, over 100 less than what we sold in November of 2021 (398 sales). We have actually been averaging less transactions nearly every month this year, due to higher interest rates and the economic uncertainty lingering the market right now.
Months of Inventory
This final graph is another representation of supply and demand in our market. This statistic says that if we didn’t get any more listings, at the current rate houses are selling, it would take x months before we run out of houses.
In November we had 4 months of inventory. It had been floating around 2-3 months for a while now, and the last time we saw it at 4 was February 2021. 4 months of inventory is still rather low, but it does show that there is a shift in the supply and demand balance (or lack thereof) that we have been seeing.