Aaron Robbins

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Median Sales Price

I use the median closed price for homes to show the growth in value that properties in our areas have experienced. Medians work best because they are not skewed by anomalies like averages are, and I used closed price rather than list price to provide true market values, rather than what the seller might hope their home will sell for!

Real Estate is an appreciating asset so it is not surprising to see the values rise overtime, but these recent years of high demand have skewed the rate of appreciation up past what it has been prior. With high interest rates turning away many buyers, the lack of inventory has kept demand growing, and thus, prices as well. But last month, our median sales priced dropped to $242,000 from the $264,950 that was in January. It will be interesting to see if March is the first month in a long time where we see two straight months of depreciation, or if we once again leap back on track of where we were.

Closed Price to Original Price Ratio

This graph is a great indicator of demand in our market. It shows us what percentage of the original asking price (before any reductions) houses are selling for. If a house sells for the exact asking price, it will have a ratio of 100.0%.

Last month, we had a 96.5% ratio, which is .8% lower than it was in January. This is the first time it has been less than 97% since February of 2020. With higher interest rates and therefor less demand on the buyers side, it’s important for sellers to have realistic expectations when selecting a price for their home.

Median Days to Sell

Days to sell really means days to go under contract, aka days until the seller has accepted a written offer to purchase for the property. Like the last graph, this helps us measure supply vs demand. I am again using median rather than average so that the outliers don’t skew our numbers.

In the past, 30+ days on market was perfectly normal. Since demand picked up several years ago, we have been spoiled with record fast sales. They have been slowing down ever so slightly, and in February, the median days to sell was up to 22. In October it was 13, in August it was 7, and in June it was 5. Febraury was actually the longest it has taken houses to sell since early 2020.

Number of New Listings

This graph represents the number of properties listed for sale over the past 3 years. This statistic helps us identify what the number of new inventory is, since supply levels directly affect demand and prices.

In December, we were right on par with new inventory levels we had seen in years prior, with 304 new listings. In February however, we had 298 new listings, while at this time in years prior we usually saw around 360. It’s interesting to see prices lower and days on market increase without there being extra inventory to encourage it.

Number of Transactions

Here we see a visualization of the number of homes that made it through the listing process and ended up being sold to a buyer ready to call it home.

Just like the last graph, we can see some obvious seasonal trends here. Last month we sold 249 properties, 12 more than what we sold in January. Sales have been steadily dropping, but this month we saw a slight increase, which is normal for this season.

Months of Inventory

This final graph tracks an equation that we use to measure the relationship between inventory and demand in the market. This statistic essentially says “If we get zero new listings for sale until every house currently listed has sold, at the current rate houses are selling, it would take x months before we run out of inventory.”

In February, we had 4 months of inventory, which is on par with what we have been seeing since mid 2020. At our current rate, this number is likely to increase- If inventory levels do continue to increase, like they usually do this time of year, and prices remain high and thus transactions don’t catch up, we will likely see an increase in Months of Inventory. However with Spring around the corner, it’s difficult to predict how our market will react amongst the higher rates than we had in Springs of the past couple of years.